Posted by
www.atlantic-community.org on Monday, July 14, 2008 5:05:26 AM
Samuel Thernstrom: Currently, cutting emissions or adapting to a warmer planet are the only policies receiving serious consideration. Yet if implemented correctly, geo-engineering could be an inexpensive and timely solution to climate change woes.
Two facts about climate change have become increasingly clear: New efforts to constrain global greenhouse gas emissions are likely within the next few years -- and their effect on the climate will be modest at best. Rapidly rising emissions in the developing world will swamp whatever reductions the United States, Europe and Japan may make. Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will continue to rise for decades to come, and warming will continue well into the next century.
What will happen? We may hope that the effects will be modest, but there is real risk that they will be very serious, at least for the most vulnerable nations. Some scientists warn of the possibility of abrupt climate change, with unpredictable but conceivably catastrophic consequences. Most troubling, by the time there are unmistakable signs of disaster, even a crash course of emissions reductions will be too late.
Policymakers have only considered two responses to climate change: cutting emissions, and adaptation -- that is, learning to live with a warmer planet. There is, however, a third possible strategy, one that could be fast, effective and affordable -- but that is being ignored. This idea is commonly known as geo-engineering.
Samuel Thernstrom is co-director of an American Enterprise Institute project to study the policy implications of geo-engineering.